MFRadio.de:
What is happening on the global political stage right now – BRICS countries, the realignment of the USA under Donald Trump, the Ukraine war – seems to many like a grand, planned scenario. Some of these developments were predicted mathematically or systemically years ago. Is this all a coincidence?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
No, it's not a coincidence – but it's not an all-encompassing master plan either. What we see is the result of system dynamics, not secret scripts. States, militaries and economic actors have been working with risk, game theory and stability models for decades. These models do not predict what exactly will happen, but what is likely to happen if several factors tip over at the same time.
The fact that bloc formation, power shifts and conflicts are accumulating today is less a matter of planning than of an overstretched global order.

MFRadio.de:
Are the USA, Europe and especially Germany being used as a pawn to secure global political advantages?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
Yes – but not in the sense of a will-less victim. Germany is not "used", but strategic dependencies are used. Germany is economically strong, but dependent on security policy, vulnerable in terms of energy policy and politically slow.
This makes it a leverage state. Great powers do not act morally, but interest-driven. If you don't reduce dependencies, you inevitably become part of other people's strategies.

MFRadio.de:
How do you assess the policies of the Trump administration, especially harsh measures such as arrests or interventions without international coordination, for example in the case of Venezuela?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
Under Donald Trump, US policy follows a clearly transactional logic: power before rules, interests before multilateralism.
Under international law, such actions are highly problematic. From the US point of view, they are consistent in terms of power politics. The US is thus signalling that sovereignty only applies as long as it does not contradict our core interests.
This is not a new policy – it is just being pursued more openly and less diplomatically.

MFRadio.de:
What if the US – as announced – tried to take Greenland?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
A military capture would be a disaster under international law and geopolitically. This is not realistic.
But: The statement is a signal of power. The Arctic is strategically relevant – raw materials, trade routes, military. The US already has considerable influence there. It is not about invasion, but about
deterrence against other actors, especially Russia and China.

MFRadio.de:
Many people have the impression that all European states must subordinate themselves to the USA and that no one can really disagree. Is that true?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
In this absoluteness, no – but the core of the impression is justified. Europe's security architecture is based on NATO, and it cannot function without the United States.
As long as Europe remains militarily, strategically and nuclear-dependent, real dissent is only possible to a limited extent – and expensive. Individual states such as France or Turkey disagree selectively, but Europe as a whole does not speak with one voice.

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MFRadio.de:
Why is Germany particularly vulnerable in transitional phases?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
Because Germany is a highly optimized model for success. For decades, everything worked under stable conditions: cheap energy, open markets, peace, reliable rules.
Transitional phases punish optimization. Germany is a Formula 1 engine – extremely powerful, but sensitive. In addition, there is export dependency, demographics, slow administration and outsourced security. This makes Germany particularly sensitive in the face of systemic upheaval.

MFRadio.de:
And why does Europe as a whole seem so fragile?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
Because Europe is not a state, but a compromise system. Different interests, cultures and economic models share a set of rules. This leads to open disputes – and from the outside, disputes seem like weakness.
In fact, Europe is more adaptable than many believe. What is often perceived as "disintegration" is mostly decentralization, not dissolution.

MFRadio.de:
Finally: Is Europe a pawn or an actor?

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Berthel:
Europe is both.
As long as it does not enforce its own security, industrial and foreign policy, it will remain reactive. Not externally controlled – but externally framed.
The real question is not whether Europe or Germany is being manipulated, but

"My assessments only reflect my knowledge and facts and are not a master plan or predictions of the future, but in my work I have been able to assess many scenarios on the world political stage well in the past.

Conclusion by MFRadio.de:
Yes, it remains exciting and it is obvious that the world is moving away from rules to power, from stability to adaptation. Germany and Europe are not on the verge of collapse – but they are faced with a decision: Shape or react is the question?

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