Is the big energy price shock coming now? What the Iran/USA/Israel war means for Germany and Europe
Is the big energy price shock coming now? What the Iran/USA/Israel war means for Germany and Europe
Energy price shock, the energy markets are already reacting – and not "someday", but now. The reason is simple: the conflict hits a nerve in the global economy – transport routes, insurance and production in the Middle East. This is exactly where oil and LNG flows hang, which Europe continues to feel (despite diversification).
1) What has already become more expensive?
Oil:
Brent has risen significantly in recent days;
Brent has risen significantly in recent days;
Gas in Europe (TTF):
The European gas benchmark TTF has shot up massively in a very short time – in some cases up to ~45-50% intraday/short-term, partly due to LNG risks and reports around Qatar.
Germany – Fuel (fuel pump):
The ADAC already reports in Germanynoticeably higher fuel prices and speaks of a two-year high; most recently, e.g. E10 ~1.776 €/L and diesel ~1.740 €/L were mentioned (depending on week/region).
Cyprus – first pass on visible:
Rising wholesale purchase prices are also reported in Cyprus – this typically ends up at the pump with a time lag.
2) Why is Europe nervous this time, especially when it comes to gas?
Oil is more global, can be redirected/buffered in the short term. Gas/LNG, on the other hand, is logistically more sensitive. This is precisely why the EU has already convened a gas coordination round – because markets are very quick to price in a disruption of LNG flows.
In addition, the risk premium is rising not only because of physical failures, but also because of:
- more expensive ship insurance
- , reroutes/stops in maritime transport
- , precautionary reluctance of traders/suppliers
3) Outlook: Three scenarios for Germany & Europe
Scenario A: De-escalation in days/weeks (price shock "short & sharp")Oil
- and TTF gas are partly declining again, but remain volatile.
- Fuel prices in Germany: usually a few days to 1-2 weeks delay, depending on stock/price passing.
Scenario B: Tough conflict without a total bottleneck blockade (prices "high & nervous")
- Gas remains the driver in Europe (TTF high, electricity prices indirectly under pressure).
- Industry (chemicals, steel, cement, glass) is under cost pressure.
- Inflation is picking up again; the ECB warns that a prolonged conflict could increase inflation and dampen growth.
Scenario C: Hard disruption of the Strait of Hormuz/LNG chain (real "shock")
- Then it is no longer a matter of "a few cents", but of broad cost waves: transport, electricity, food, travel.
- Markets would aggressively price in a permanent energy shortage (including significantly higher gas spikes).
4) Who benefits – who loses?
Profiteers
- Oil and gas producers (higher revenues at higher prices)
- LNG suppliers outside the crisis region and traders (higher demand/spreads)
- Parts of insurance/security/defense, as long as claims do not eat up
everything Negatively affected
- consumers (fuel, heating, electricity) Indirectly)
- Transport & Tourism (Jet Fuel + Risk Premiums)
- Energy-Intensive Industry in Germany/Europe (Competitiveness, Margins, Investment Stop Risk)
MFRadio Classification: What Does This Mean in Concrete Terms for Cyprus, Germany & Europe?
- Yes – the price movement has already begun (oil, TTF, first fuel signals in DE).
- Gas is Europe's Achilles' heel because LNG risks are immediate.
- The "big shock" does not come automatically – but the probability increases with each passing week if the conflict remains hot.
- Gasvery clearly in wholesale, and clearly visible in oil – both since the beginning/intensification of the escalation.
- Fuel at the pump often arrives with a delay – but the first countries/regions are already reporting rising purchase prices (e.g. Cyprus).
Current fuel prices at a glance!
🇩🇪 1. Germany — current prices
According to the latest surveys and ADAC data, the average prices at German petrol stations are currently approximately:
- Super E10 petrol: approx. €1.77 – €1.82 per litre
- Diesel: approx. €1.74 – €1.74 per litre
These brand prices come from ADAC monitoring and are at a long-term high, which is related to increased crude oil prices in the wake of geopolitical uncertainties.
🇨🇾 2. Cyprus — current prices
According to the latest EU Oil Bulletin data (23 February 2026), the average fuel prices in Cyprus are:
- Euro 95 petrol: approx. €1.312 per litre
- Diesel: approx. €1.406 per litre
These prices are is below the EU average level in the EU comparison table and thus tends to be slightly cheaper than in many Western European countries.
🇪🇺 3. Europe – EU average
According to the weekly published EU data ("European Commission Oil Bulletin"), the average prices for all 27 EU Member States (also as of 23 February 2026) are:
- **Average petrol (Euro 95): approx. **€1,551 per litre
- Average diesel: approx. €1,545 per litre
This means that the European average is slightly below the current prices in Germany, and Cyprus is below the average in the EU context.
Author: MF-Redaktion / Tom Weyermann
Sources: REUTERS / theguardioan.com / cyprusmail.com / fuel-prices.eu
