Federal Statistical Office discontinues publication of preliminary insolvency figures
Federal Statistical Office discontinues publication of preliminary insolvency figures
The Federal Statistical Office is ending the monthly publication of preliminary insolvency figures. As can be seen from a recent press release, the regular publication of these leading indicators will be discontinued as of the reference month of December 2025. The preliminary data on regular insolvencies, which were previously published monthly and were based on the announcements of the local courts, are affected. Apollo News had first reported on it.
This eliminates a central early warning function that previously allowed a timely overview of the development of corporate insolvencies. In the future, only final figures will be published - but only with a delay of about three months. In addition, it must be taken into account that insolvency applications are statistically only recorded after the first decision of the competent insolvency court. In practice, there are often another two to three months between the application and the court decision. In the future, the actual economic development will only be visible with a time lag of up to six months.
The authority does not provide a concrete, comprehensible reason for this step. The communication merely states that the provisional monthly data have "not yet reached the methodological maturity and robustness of official statistics" and should therefore be classified as experimental data.
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This explanation raises questions. The preliminary figures were published over a longer period of time, used in the media and classified politically and economically. The fact that its methodological quality is now being called into question at a time when insolvencies are rising significantly leaves room for speculation. Critics wonder whether the omission of the early data does not deliberately create a temporal distance in order to confront the public, the economy and the population less directly with the negative development.
Especially against the background of the current figures, this decision is explosive. The last preliminary report for December 2025 showed an increase in insolvency applications of 15.2 percent compared to the same month last year. Final data is now available for October 2025: The local courts registered 2,108 corporate insolvencies – an increase of 4.8 percent compared to October 2024. The previously published preliminary value had been an increase of 6.5 percent.
It remains to be seen whether the discontinuation of the preliminary publications is a purely statistical-methodological decision or whether political considerations could also play a role. What is certain, however, is that transparency and timely information about the economic situation will be significantly restricted – especially in a phase in which reliable leading indicators would be particularly important for companies, investors and employees.
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The truth:
The discontinuation of the preliminary insolvency figures does not have a neutral effect. It directly affects certain groups negatively, while others benefit from less transparency, at least in the short term.
Who has disadvantages?
Banks & credit institutions
- Poorer risk assessment: Leading indicators are missing → loan defaults are detected later.
- Miscalibrated lending: Decisions are based on outdated data.
- Higher provisions in retrospect instead of forward-looking management. Result: Either too risky or braked too late.
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2. Investors (private individuals, funds, investment companies)
- Distorted market analysis: Insolvency dynamics are concealed over time.
- Mispricing of companies and industries.
- Later exit signals for investments.
👉 Particularly critical for SME investments, private equity, distressed assets.
Companies & SMEs
- No realistic market environment is visible anymore.
- Supplier and customer risks are detected too late.
- Wrong decisions in expansion, personnel, financing.
👉 Solid companies in particular pay the price for a lack of transparency.
Economic Research & Analysts
- Loss of a key leading indicator.
- Economic models are becoming less accurate, forecasts more uncertain.
- Public debates are losing their database.
Employees & self-employed
- Labour market risks become visible later.
- Politicians react with a delay → social and labour market measures come too late.
Who benefits, at least in the short term?
Politics and government benefit from it for the time being.
- Temporal defusing of negative headlines.
- Waves of insolvencies are statistically "stretched".
- Public perception remains calmer – especially before elections.
Public communication
- Fewer monthly negative reports = less media pressure.
Clear classification
The argument of "lack of methodological maturity" is technically possible, but conspicuous in terms of time.
In fact, there is an information gap of up to six months between economic reality and public statistics.
In fact, there is an information gap of up to six months between economic reality and public statistics.
👉 Loss of transparency promotes political stability – but at the expense of economic rationality.
👉 For markets, investments and credit decisions, this is objectively a step backwards.
👉 For markets, investments and credit decisions, this is objectively a step backwards.
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Author: MF-Redaktion / Tom Weyermann
Source: TichisEinblicke, dpa
