The European aviation industry is facing a potentially massive crisis. The background to this is a worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East – with a direct impact on the supply of jet fuel. Industry insiders and airline managers are sounding the alarm: If the situation does not ease in the short term, there is a risk of thousands of flight cancellations and idle aircraft throughout Europe.

A central bottleneck is the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important oil and fuel routes in the world. A significant part of the kerosene used in Europe comes from refineries in this region. According to current analyses, around half of the jet fuel at European airports comes indirectly from the Persian Gulf.

With the increasing escalation in the conflict between Iran, Israel and the USA, the risk is growing that this route will be blocked or massively restricted. The first concrete effects are already visible: tankers bound for Europe are being diverted or staying away – a warning signal for the entire industry.

Market data shows a significant slump in imports. According to analysis companies such as Vortexa, jet fuel deliveries to Europe have recently slumped by around 40 percent - the lowest level since the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022.

At the same time, inventories are also critical:
In the important energy hub Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, reserves are already below average.

A particularly critical point: Europe cannot meet the demand itself. Examples show structural dependence:

The current crisis is hitting an already ailing system. Several factors have exacerbated the situation in recent years:

restricted alternative sources of supplyThis combination ensures that Europe is much less resilient today than it was just a few years ago.

Normally, Europe could switch to suppliers such as India, South Korea or China. But this is exactly where the next problem lies:

The result: Global competition for kerosene is intensifying – Europe is under increasing pressure.

In addition to the shortage, the price is also rising massively. Within a few weeks, the price of kerosene has more than doubled and is currently around 1,800 US dollars per tonne.

The so-called "crack spread" – the difference between the price of crude oil and the refinery price – is particularly critical. This is currently rising sharply and is not secured by existing contracts, so airlines have to bear the costs directly.

The result: margins collapse, ticket prices are likely to rise - or flights are cancelled.

Airlines are already preparing for worst-case scenarios:

Some airlines are already considering concrete measures. According to industry circles, 20 to 40 aircraft per airline could be decommissioned.

The simple reality:
Less kerosene = fewer flights.

The timing is particularly explosive:
The possible shortage falls exactly in the peak travel season between June and September.

Even if the situation eases quickly, a full recovery of supply chains would take weeks or months.

Assessments within the industry differ:

geopolitical development around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains decisive.

European aviation is at a critical juncture. The combination of geopolitical tensions, structural weaknesses and global competition for resources could lead to significant disruptions in the short term.

If the situation does not ease quickly, the summer of 2026 will be a test of endurance for airlines and travelers alike.







Image source: MFRadio.deAuthor: MFRadio.de - Redaktion
Sources: REUTERS / Specifically about the "sources" mentioned in the articleThese are included in the original text or derived from it:Corriere della Sera (Italian newspaper) → from your text analysis companies such as: Vortexa (oil and energy flow data)